The private secondary market has transformed from a niche arena for a handful of investors into a high-stakes ecosystem featuring thousands of institutional players. Today, the narrative of this market is dominated by three giants: Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX. While AI remains the primary headline-grabber, a shift in momentum and an impending massive IPO are rewriting the rules for late-stage investors.
The AI Divergence: Anthropic’s Hero Arc
According to Glen Anderson, president of Rainmaker Securities, Anthropic has become the most difficult stock to source. While Next Round Capital reports $2 billion in buy-side demand for Anthropic, roughly $600 million in OpenAI shares are currently sitting on the market without takers.
This surge in Anthropic’s popularity is partly attributed to its public standoff with the Department of Defense. Rather than hurting the brand, the conflict solidified Anthropic’s image as a “hero” taking on big government, further differentiating it from OpenAI.
Valuation Realities
The secondary market reflects this cooling sentiment toward OpenAI. Shares are currently trading at an implied valuation of $765 billion, a notable discount from its recent $852 billion primary valuation. To combat high-fee brokers, banks like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have even begun offering OpenAI shares to wealthy clients without carry fees. In contrast, demand for Anthropic is so high that Goldman is still charging its standard 15% to 20% carry.
SpaceX: The Ultimate Market Disrupter
While the AI giants battle for attention, SpaceX remains in a league of its own. Unlike most private tech firms that saw 60% to 70% valuation corrections between 2022 and 2024, SpaceX has maintained a consistent upward trajectory.
Earlier investors are looking at staggering returns. Those who entered during the 2015 funding round—when the company was valued at $12 billion—are now eyeing 100x gains as the company’s valuation surpasses $1 trillion.
The Looming Liquidity Crunch
SpaceX has reportedly filed confidentially for an IPO, aiming to raise between $50 billion and $75 billion as early as June. This move could stifle the public debut plans of Anthropic and OpenAI, both of which are rumored to be considering 2026 listings.
In the IPO world, the first mover often secures the most capital. Anderson warns that SpaceX is likely to “soak up” the majority of available liquidity. For the AI companies following in Elon Musk’s wake, the challenge won’t just be proving their tech—it will be finding enough remaining investor capital to match their ambitious valuations.
